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Order book microstructure and fair price estimation on betting exchanges
Smutný, Josef ; Fanta, Nicolas (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
The aim of this paper is to predict the fair price as accurately as possible from the microstructure of the orderbook on Betfair, the world's largest betting exchange. In particular, the work focuses on the analysis of the effect of disproportionately large quotes on the fair price of the market. It also addresses their theoretical monetization in practice in the case of market inefficiency. The results show that, from the data examined, traded markets are relatively efficient and the factors that can be inferred from the microstructure of the orderbook are, in the vast majority of cases, not statistically significant for predicting the fair price of a given event. However, the data do show exceptions where, in particular types of markets, these quotes are statistically significant and have the expected impact on the model's prediction in the form of increasing the probability of the selection they want to trade. Thus, the model prediction can in some cases be used as a fair price indicator by which one could theoretically trade profitably on Betfair or even on other platforms, assuming they offered a better price. Keywords Betting exchange, Fair price, Quotes, Betting odds, Back, Lay, Spread Title Order book microstructure and fair price estimation on betting exchanges
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Comparison of Models for Probabilities in Football Betting
Kožnar, František ; Večeř, Jan (advisor) ; Hlávka, Zdeněk (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to compare different statistical models for football betting odds and determine the best performing once based on the historical performance of sport teams. There are at least two possible approaches for computing the odds, namely Poisson regression and methods based on statistical machine learning. The idea is that the historical performance of teams is a good predictor of the future performance. Thus we can take the past performances, say all matches in the full season of the Bundesliga (306 matches), and use these data for predicting the odds for the following season. The resulting odds should be compared with the actual results using the scoring rules, which will identify the best performing model. 1
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Comparison of Models for Probabilities in Football Betting
Kožnar, František ; Večeř, Jan (advisor) ; Hlávka, Zdeněk (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to compare different statistical models for football betting odds and determine the best performing once based on the historical performance of sport teams. There are at least three possible approaches for computing the odds, namely logistic regression, Poisson regression and methods based on statistical machine learning. The idea is that the historical performance of teams is a good predictor of the future performance. Thus we can take the past performances, say all matches in the full season of the English Premier League (380 matches), and use these data for predicting the odds for the following season. The resulting odds should be compared with the actual results using the scoring rules, which will identify the best performing model.
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Prediction of Betting Odds Based on Logistic Regression
JANDA, Pavel
Betting odds in various areas of human life is becoming very popular. This Bachelor's Thesis deals with the prediction of betting odds based on logistic regression. This work describes general information about betting odds, the history of betting odds both here in the Czech Republic and abroad, the forms of betting odds, who is a bookmaker and how betting odds are created. There are 3 sets of data. Specifically, it is the advantage of the home ground, the pre-match table and previous matches. Data is processed by lo-gistic regression to predict betting odds. The three above conditions are included in the Statistica program, which calculates the probability of each variant based on logistic regression. The results from the Statistica program are then compared to the actually listed betting odds.
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Marketing strategy of betting agency Tipsport a.s.
Lukáčová, Aneta ; Průša, Přemysl (advisor) ; Dočekalová, Denisa (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with marketing strategy of a betting agency Tipsport a.s., which is a leader among betting agencies in the Czech Republic. The aim of this bachelor is to analyse the current marketing strategy of Tipsport a.s., evaluate its effectiveness and make recommendations for improving current marketing activities based on own survey. The theoretical part summarizes main theoretical findings about marketing in general, marketing in services and strategic marketing, which provide insight into the issue. The practical part of the thesis focuses on the company Tipsport a.s., with an emphasis on its marketing mix, SWOT analysis and Tipsport's competition. This thesis includes questionnaire survey, based on which the suggestions for improvement of the current marketing strategy are drawn.
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Database design for online betting shop
Jirásek, Miroslav ; Palovská, Helena (advisor) ; Joglová, Bianka (referee)
This work is focused on database design of website, which provides news and moneyless betting odds on local football games in the district of Rakovnik. Best betters are rewarded with factual prizes. The target of this work was clarifying and analyzing football atmosphere and declaring requirements needed for the website. According to these requirements Conceptual Data Model and Physical Data Model were created. Generated database is ready to be used for this particular project. Because of the high amount of very specified requirements the database will not be probably used for wide range of projects. It's much more likely to be used in very similar projects as news reporting with option to bet on sport matches.
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Marketing of betting agencies
Kouřil, Jakub ; Skokanová, Dagmar (advisor) ; Krekule, Petr (referee)
The aim of this bachelor's thesis is an analysis of betting agencies from the perspective of the marketing mix. The introductory theoretical part explains the terms marketing mix, SWOT analysis and marketing research. The practical part is then devoted to two largest Czech betting agencies - Tipsport Inc. and Fortuna Inc. Emphasis is placed mainly on the evaluation of two parts of the marketing mix - product and price, including a comparison with foreign competitors. The following is a SWOT analysis characterizing the current situation on the betting market. Services offered are evaluated through the customer survey. The final section proposes measures to improve the current situation.
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Strategy of business unit
Janeta, Zdeněk ; Filipová, Alena (advisor) ; Zeman, Jiří (referee)
The thesis describing Strategy of business unit is divided into three parts. First theoretical part summarizes strategic management together with strategic analysis, consisting of external and internal part. Second part describes operations on betting market, contemporary Czech market, its development and actual services offered. Last part analyses the strategy of Tipsport Company. It contains basic characteristic of the company followed by development of individual parts of business strategy such as SWOT and PEST analysis and marketing strategy.
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